Calculating Probability Density Distribution for Missing Person Search

The first of the four elements of the optimal search problem is having a probability density distribution (predicting the likelihood that an object is in any particular search area or region.) To achieve this during a Maritime Search and Rescue Incident one takes into account the accuracy of the initial location report, the current, wind [...]

January 26, 2010 · Robert Bradley · One Comment
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Elements of the Optimal Search Problem

Lawrence Stone defined the elements of the optimal search problem in his 1986 book, Theory of Optimal Search. This was paraphrased extremely well by Cooper, Frost and Robe in their 2003 report – Compatibility of Land SAR Procedures with Search Theory as quoted below; A probability density distribution on search object location and state (so [...]

January 19, 2010 · Robert Bradley · 2 Comments
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Probability of Area (POA)

Probability of Area (POA) refers to the likelihood of the object being searched for actually being in the area. There are a number of ways of calculating the POA; either through subjective reasoning [coming up with a consensus] or through the use of existing statistics and models – such as missing person behaviour statistics.

January 8, 2010 · Robert Bradley · No Comments
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