Elements of the Optimal Search Problem
Lawrence Stone defined the elements of the optimal search problem in his 1986 book, Theory of Optimal Search. This was paraphrased extremely well by Cooper, Frost and Robe in their 2003 report – Compatibility of Land SAR Procedures with Search Theory as quoted below; A probability density distribution on search object location and state (so [...]
January 19, 2010
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Robert Bradley · 
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Tags: Compatibility of Land SAR Procedures with Search Theory, Consensus, D Cooper, J Frost, Lawrence Stone, Missing Person Behaviour Statistics, Optimisation, POA, POC, POD, POS, Probability Density, Probability Density Distribution, Probability of Area, Probability of Detection, Probability of Success, R Quincy Robe, Search Effort, Search Planning, Search Resource, Search Theory, Theory of Optimal Search · Posted in: Search Research, Search Thoughts, Search Training
Probability of Area (POA)
Probability of Area (POA) refers to the likelihood of the object being searched for actually being in the area. There are a number of ways of calculating the POA; either through subjective reasoning [coming up with a consensus] or through the use of existing statistics and models – such as missing person behaviour statistics.
January 8, 2010
· Robert Bradley · No Comments
Tags: Consensus, Missing Person Behaviour Statistics, POA, Probability of Area · Posted in: SAR Dictionary
Missing Person Behaviour and SAR Callout Study
After several years of messing around I have finally decided – with much prompting and encouragement from others – to get around to studying missing person behaviour within the lowland search environment. ALSAR and LSDog teams deal with only a tiny fraction of all missing persons and indeed deal with only a small fraction of [...]
January 7, 2010
· Robert Bradley · No Comments
Tags: ALSAR, Dementia, Despondents, ISRID, Lowland Search, LSDogs, missing person behaviour, Missing Person Behaviour Statistics, Missing Person Behaviour Study, Urban Search · Posted in: Search Research, Search Thoughts
Do the police suspend vulnerable missing persons searches too quickly?
I awoke this morning with the need to write another quick post here – on the suspension of searching. I obviously discussed it slightly yesterday with the idea that we should search areas where outstanding high risk mispers could be; however, my recent revision of missing person behaviour statistics has obviously made me think more [...]
October 24, 2009
· Robert Bradley · No Comments
Tags: ACPO, ALSAR, Guidance on the Management, High Risk Misper, Koester, Lost Person Behavior, Missing Person Behaviour Statistics, Recording and Investigation of Missing Persons, Search Planning, Survivability, Suspending a Search, Vulnerable Missing Person · Posted in: Search Research, Search Thoughts
