Calculating Probability Density Distribution for Missing Person Search
The first of the four elements of the optimal search problem is having a probability density distribution (predicting the likelihood that an object is in any particular search area or region.) To achieve this during a Maritime Search and Rescue Incident one takes into account the accuracy of the initial location report, the current, wind [...]
January 26, 2010
· 
Robert Bradley · 
One Comment
Tags: Bob Koester, Consensus, Lost Person Behavior, Maritime Search and Rescue, Misper, missing person behaviour, POA, Probability Density, Probability Density Distribution, Probability of Area, Robert J Koester, Search Planner, Search Sector, Search Terrain, Theory of Optimal Search · Posted in: Search Thoughts
Probability Density (Pden)
The probability density is found by dividing the Probability of Area (POA) by the size of the search area or sector. This gives you an idea of the likelihood that the missing person or object is in an area of the same size in two different search sectors. It is an extremely important concept to [...]
January 22, 2010
· Robert Bradley · No Comments
Tags: Pden, POA, Probability Density, Probability of Area, Search Area, Search Sector · Posted in: SAR Dictionary
Elements of the Optimal Search Problem
Lawrence Stone defined the elements of the optimal search problem in his 1986 book, Theory of Optimal Search. This was paraphrased extremely well by Cooper, Frost and Robe in their 2003 report – Compatibility of Land SAR Procedures with Search Theory as quoted below; A probability density distribution on search object location and state (so [...]
January 19, 2010
· Robert Bradley · 2 Comments
Tags: Compatibility of Land SAR Procedures with Search Theory, Consensus, D Cooper, J Frost, Lawrence Stone, Missing Person Behaviour Statistics, Optimisation, POA, POC, POD, POS, Probability Density, Probability Density Distribution, Probability of Area, Probability of Detection, Probability of Success, R Quincy Robe, Search Effort, Search Planning, Search Resource, Search Theory, Theory of Optimal Search · Posted in: Search Research, Search Thoughts, Search Training
SAR Dictionary
I have decided to start an online SAR dictionary that I will add to every week. Hopefully it will help those looking for more information and/or definitions of various SAR terms. So far I have added; Probability of Area (POA) Probability of Detection (POD) and Probability of Success (POS) More will be added week on week.
January 8, 2010
· Robert Bradley · No Comments
Tags: POA, POD, POS, Probability of Area, Probability of Detection, Probability of Success, SAR Dictionary, SAR Terminology, SAR Terms · Posted in: SAR Dictionary, Search Thoughts
Probability of Success (POS)
Probability of Success is the likelihood of finding the misper or search object given the search area and search resource. It is calculated as below; POS = POA x POD It is the role of the Search Management Team to maximise the POS of the search. [Find the missing person or object as quickly as possible!] This [...]
January 8, 2010
· Robert Bradley · No Comments
Tags: POA, POD, POS, Probability of Success, Search Managment Team · Posted in: SAR Dictionary
