Calculating Probability of Detection in Search and Rescue
I wrote a couple of weeks ago about how to calculate a probability density distribution for a missing person search. This was the first element of the optimal search problem. The second element is to be able to calculate the probability of detection. There have been numerous articles and methodologies proposed in the past. Most [...]
February 9, 2010
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Robert Bradley · 
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Tags: Area Effectively Swept, GPS Track, Koopman's Exponential Detection Function, Optimal Search Problem, POD, Probability Density, Probability Density Distribution, Probability of Detection, Search Coverage, Sweep Width, Track Length · Posted in: Search Thoughts
Calculating Probability Density Distribution for Missing Person Search
The first of the four elements of the optimal search problem is having a probability density distribution (predicting the likelihood that an object is in any particular search area or region.) To achieve this during a Maritime Search and Rescue Incident one takes into account the accuracy of the initial location report, the current, wind [...]
January 26, 2010
· Robert Bradley · One Comment
Tags: Bob Koester, Consensus, Lost Person Behavior, Maritime Search and Rescue, Misper, missing person behaviour, POA, Probability Density, Probability Density Distribution, Probability of Area, Robert J Koester, Search Planner, Search Sector, Search Terrain, Theory of Optimal Search · Posted in: Search Thoughts
Probability Density (Pden)
The probability density is found by dividing the Probability of Area (POA) by the size of the search area or sector. This gives you an idea of the likelihood that the missing person or object is in an area of the same size in two different search sectors. It is an extremely important concept to [...]
January 22, 2010
· Robert Bradley · No Comments
Tags: Pden, POA, Probability Density, Probability of Area, Search Area, Search Sector · Posted in: SAR Dictionary
Elements of the Optimal Search Problem
Lawrence Stone defined the elements of the optimal search problem in his 1986 book, Theory of Optimal Search. This was paraphrased extremely well by Cooper, Frost and Robe in their 2003 report – Compatibility of Land SAR Procedures with Search Theory as quoted below; A probability density distribution on search object location and state (so [...]
January 19, 2010
· Robert Bradley · 2 Comments
Tags: Compatibility of Land SAR Procedures with Search Theory, Consensus, D Cooper, J Frost, Lawrence Stone, Missing Person Behaviour Statistics, Optimisation, POA, POC, POD, POS, Probability Density, Probability Density Distribution, Probability of Area, Probability of Detection, Probability of Success, R Quincy Robe, Search Effort, Search Planning, Search Resource, Search Theory, Theory of Optimal Search · Posted in: Search Research, Search Thoughts, Search Training
ISIS SAR Missing Person Behaviour Training Presentation
ISIS SAR is the new ALSAR Unit covering Oxfordshire; I will write one day about the whole history of Oxfordshire Search & Rescue and ALSAR but suffice to say I’m pleased to now have an ALSAR Unit working in Oxfordshire (I just hope that Thames Valley Police will jump onboard soon too – but that’s [...]
October 28, 2009
· Robert Bradley · 2 Comments
Tags: ALSAR, ALSAR Presentation, ISIS SAR, Misper Stats, Oxfordshire Search and Rescue, Probability Density, Search Training, Survivability, Thames Valley Police, Track Offset Data, Visualising Missing Person Behaviour Statistics · Posted in: Search Presentations, Search Thoughts, Search Training
